I was having a disscussion with a friend of my over the past couple of days (we’re both fairly conservative) about the state of politics in this country. The amount of times the left side of folk scream out in anger towards the things the right side says (and vice versa). For the record we don’t really like either candidate. We both have issues with Obama’s desire to drive this country towards socialism (which we are directly opposed to) and we don’t like a lot of stuff that McCain says. Neither candidate is as bad as the other side makes them out to be though.
During the course of our coversation I said, I wonder what the recent polls look like. So I did a little digging. As of today, here are the numbers from 2 different websites:
1) RealClearPolitics.com: Obama 49.0 versus McCain’s 43.9
2) CNN Election Tracker: Obama 49.25 (Avg.) versus McCain’s 43.5 (average margin for error: 6.25)
When looking at those it is easy to tell that Obama definitely has a lead on McCain. However, it is not a huge lead. It is also worth noting that Kerry lead Bush in most polls leading up to the election (and please don’t cry “election fraud” as it was never proven substantially, and never tried in court). My point is these polls don’t really show us too much about what will happen in the actual election.
One thing I do want to point out is how much the polls are currently split down the middle (or fairly close to it anyway). If you were to hit most popular internet sites, many of them will praise the works of Barak Obama and villify John McCain. Several media outlets will do this as well. To look at all the praise of Obama and to see/hear/read of the disdain for the republicans last eight years of “reign” and then see the current poll numbers, it can really make one think. Seriously think about it. If you knew nothing but what you read on the net, you’d think that Obama (being the democrate nominee for president) would have a huge lead over the republican candidate. Especially given Bush’s low approval rating. Congress was replaced two years ago because people felt the republicans weren’t doing their jobs, so they obviously had a low approval rating to have a change in congressional party leadership.
However, the race (at least according to the polls) looks to be at a dead heat. The conclusion I have come to is this: While most people might in fact be unhappy with Bush, a large percentage of Americans still hold to basic republican ideals. To put it another way, a large number of people still believe that the republicans have the right idea and agree with it.
Think about it. If it was simply a party issue, republicans are bad and democrates are good then Obama would have a huge lead over McCain. But as it currently stands they’re pretty much neck and neck (especially when you consider the margin for error). But political parties are more than just a side you pick, they represent ideas, principles, and even beliefs. They are an ideology about how things should be done by the people and for the people. The fact McCain has just about half of the numbers in the polls really shows that a lot of people still hold to the ideals of the republican party, even if they don’t like their current figureheads.
Just something to chew on.
Michael Koby 
I don't trust the poll numbers. I don't think they are accurate and I think they will always show only a one or two point favor each way. You could run Hitler against Ghandi and the polls are going to show “a tight race”. The fact is this: there are many people that are just that dumb. When you figure that out, you don't have to constantly wonder why things are the way they are.As for your last comment, if there were really a whole lot of people out there still holding on to the ideals of the Republican party, it would be Obama vs. Ron Paul. The McCain campaign would have died off sometime last year. I think that a majority of people who claim to be Republican, don't even know what that means. To them, the party is like a football team they have always rooted for. They don't even know why.
Yea, there is probably some truth to what you say about poll numbers.However, with this country's political landscape being split like it is, Ican very much see the polls being really close (and the actual election forthat matter).I still hold to my last comment though. I think a lot of people out therestill hold to the ideals of the Republican party. I hold to this not justbecause of the polls but also due to conversations I have had both onlineand off with various people. There are 2 reasons that Ron Paul didn't makeit to main campaign.1) Ron Paul was largely ignored by mainstream media. So much so that on onerepublican debate, he was the 5th most popular candidate and when the 3rdmost popular dropped out (moving Ron Paul into the 4th position), thestation holding the debate changed the rules so that Ron Paul wouldn't be onthe debate.2) Ron Paul is marked as republican, but his views generally move towardsthe Libertarian side of the political spectrum. He's so far “right” thatrepublicans think he's “extreme” so even if he had been followed bymainstream media, I doubt that he would have been able to grab thenomination because the party would have voted someone more “center”.With that said, I'd like to mention that I was all for Ron Paul (still am)and was really gunning for him to win the nomination. It's a pity he didn'twin.
If McCain was a minority candidate and Obama was white – the polls would say 60% – 30% Obama. Republican Ideals…?
I think race has little to do with it. If Obama was white, most of the people voting against him would still do so, as race has nothing to do with it (it's largely his economic policies people have issues with).For a more specfiic example look at 2004 for example. The democrats needed a candidate that could beat Bush. Kerry and Bush were neck and neck in the polls. Bush eventually won (both the electoral and popular votes). A large percent of the people who dislike Bush now disliked him in 2004. Now according to many (including republicans) Bush didn't meet expectations in his second term either. So now it's safe to say that more people dislike Bush than in 2004. If more people dislike Bush and the republican party than in 2004, why are all the polls show McCain and Obama in a neck and neck race? Some people vote their party for the reasons that J.P. mentioned above, others vote party because they believe in the general ideals of the party.
If McCain was a minority candidate and Obama was white – the polls would say 60% – 30% Obama. Republican Ideals…?
I think race has little to do with it. If Obama was white, most of the people voting against him would still do so, as race has nothing to do with it (it's largely his economic policies people have issues with).For a more specfiic example look at 2004 for example. The democrats needed a candidate that could beat Bush. Kerry and Bush were neck and neck in the polls. Bush eventually won (both the electoral and popular votes). A large percent of the people who dislike Bush now disliked him in 2004. Now according to many (including republicans) Bush didn't meet expectations in his second term either. So now it's safe to say that more people dislike Bush than in 2004. If more people dislike Bush and the republican party than in 2004, why are all the polls show McCain and Obama in a neck and neck race? Some people vote their party for the reasons that J.P. mentioned above, others vote party because they believe in the general ideals of the party.